The Social Cost of Alberta’s Economic Downturn

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted Alberta’s previously weakened economy. The closure of non-essential businesses, travel restrictions, physical distancing measures, and the latest crash in oil prices has negatively impacted businesses and contributed to a surge in unemployment. In May 2020, Alberta's unemployment rate rose to 15.5 percent, up from 6.7 percent in May 2019. At the same time, Canada's unemployment rate was 13.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent in May 2019. According to ATB Economics, almost no sector of Alberta’s economy was left unscathed. Such a rapid increase in unemployment adds to the economic insecurity many households in Alberta are already facing. Further, the unemployment rate in the province is expected to be one of the highest in the country next year.

“According to ATB Economics, almost no sector of Alberta’s economy was left unscathed. Such a rapid increase in unemployment adds to the economic insecurity many households in Alberta are already facing.”

Though the pandemic has exacerbated social distress in Alberta, the fall of oil prices in 2014 and the ensuing recession kickstarted the deterioration of Albertans' social well-being over the last six years. Since 2014, the economic trajectory of Alberta has been stark, and the correlating distress, as captured by data from social conditions for the 2014 to 2019 period, exemplify why significant jobs lost, bears more weight than we may realize:

• The number of unemployed individuals not covered by employment insurance has risen 53 percent;

• Unemployment among young men is up 156 percent;

• Food bank usage is up 80 percent;

• Suicide hotline calls have increased by 85 percent;

• The number of individuals seeking counselling support in Calgary has increased 46 percent;

• The percentage of Alberta households relying on social assistance has nearly doubled;

• Incidents of domestic violence in Calgary have increased by 150 percent;

• Non-violent crime is up 34 percent;

• Business insolvencies have increased by 58 percent; and,

• Consumer bankruptcies are up 101 percent.[1]

It's common to conceptualize a business' contribution to society through economic factors such as the unemployment rate or GDP growth rate, however, it’s evident that the impact extends far beyond such quantitative factors. As exemplified by the data, the worsening of Alberta's economy and the loss of approximately 100,000 jobs in the energy sector, has had effects on the social well-being, and ultimately, the quality of life for Albertans. The rise in suicide hotline calls, incidents of domestic violence, and the number of individuals seeking counselling, exemplifies the dire and long-term consequences that accompany economic hardship. In turn, the healthcare system, the non-profit sector, and government agencies are strained by such increased social distress.

“Though less visible than empty corporate offices, these longer-term, and often less cited aspects of economic hardship on individuals and their families, compound over time.”

Though less visible than empty corporate offices, these longer-term, and often less cited aspects of economic hardship on individuals and their families, compound over time. Such consequences are not always resolved when the economy recovers, and “jobs come back.” As a result, it's imperative that we acknowledge the deeper and more meaningful cost of the approximately 100,000 lost jobs in Alberta, as it's not only about income loss for corporations and individuals. The reality is that the hardship – which permeates the lives and homes of Albertans following the sudden loss of employment – may be everlasting. 

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About the Author

Flutra Kacuri is an incoming second-year law student at the University of Calgary, Faculty of Law and a summer research associate at Viewpoint Research. Her research focuses on ESG, energy governance, and policy.

Economic Underperformance, Excessive Indebtedness, and Our Constrained Future

With last week’s federal deficit announcement, it is now more important than ever that we acknowledge our current realities with detail and clarity. We otherwise will be unable to develop a believable and effective path forward in the post-COVID world. The problem is that our current realities are uncomfortably negative. Many of us just don’t want to see this or believe it. We were in a slow-moving crisis of competitiveness, investment, and productivity prior to the COVID lockdown. Now, we have both stagnant productivity and excessive levels of debt. This feels negative as most of us understandably want to feel positive and optimistic about our future.  However, for optimism to be real it must be grounded in reality. It is only then we can develop a believable and inspiring vision, and the appropriate strategies to recover and rebuild our economy.

Prior to the COVID lockdown, the economic fundamentals in Canada were already grim:

• Growth in GDP per capita since 2013 was less than one-half that of the United States (US), and Canada had the worst performance of all G7 countries.

• Business investment was about 20% below peak levels of 2014. Even outside the resource extraction sector business investment was below 2014 levels.

• According to the World Investment Report, the stock of foreign direct investment in Canada had grown at half the global rate since 2015.

• The World Bank ranks Canada 23rd in its quality of trade and transportation infrastructure – ports, rail, and highways – with Germany ranking first and the US seventh.

• 2019 per worker investment placed Canada 15th among the 17 OECD countries. In Switzerland, businesses invest twice as much per worker as Canadian businesses.

• Canada’s labour productivity has significantly lagged that of the US, our main customer and competitor. In 2019, Canada generated US$55.00 per hour of labour compared to US$76.50 in the United States.

• Returns on equities in Canada (including dividends) have been horribly inferior to global and US returns. Over the past ten years, cumulative returns on global equities have been over 3x that of Canada’s, and returns on US equities have been almost 6x greater than in Canada.

As a Canadian, if you were fortunate enough to accumulate savings, the last thing you should have done is to invest in Canadian companies on Canadian stock exchanges.

We were in a state of investment, competitive, and economic underperformance before the pandemic-related collapse. “Going back to normal” or “the way things were” is going back to a set of conditions that were compromising the future for all Canadians.

And now, we have the added reality of excessive debt. The inevitable consequence is a loss of financial flexibility, less capacity to spend, and more financial risk in the event of an extended recession, additional intermittent lockdowns, or some other new, unforeseen crisis.

Although the financial position of our federal government was reasonable going into the COVID lockdown (debt to GDP ratio was 35%), this has all changed seemingly overnight.

With a $350 billion deficit, we are now adding about 15% to the debt to GDP ratio. Maybe this still doesn’t look too alarming, however, we are missing a large part of the picture if we ignore the provinces.

We have learned in crisis that the national government will be called upon to backstop the credit demands of all provinces, and to a certain extent, even corporate and household debt.

Ontario’s debt is now about $400 billion, Quebec $200 billion, and then there are the other provinces. The Western provinces, including Manitoba, are now close to approximately $150 billion. The Atlantic provinces represent another $50 billion in debt. If you’re keeping track, that’s $800 billion of provincial debt combined with now over $1 trillion of federal debt. Total “all in” government debt is now at least $1.8 trillion and heading towards $2.0 trillion which would be 100% of GDP – that represents over $50,000 for every man woman and child in Canada, or $200,000 for a household of four.

Analysts and economists tend to look at debt solely on the basis of decision-making authority and responsibility at the entity level, as this is where insolvency would occur. This is why most don’t aggregate debt. But aside from insolvency risk, the key problem with debt that’s often overlooked is how it constrains choice and optionality. The aggregation of choice and commitment drives our overall economy. Understanding our economic outlook requires accounting for the burden of debt across all decision-making entities.

The government debt described above is layered on top of consumer and corporate debt. Total consumer debt in Canada is at a record $2.3 trillion which includes $1.6 trillion of mortgages. Household debt to disposable income is now at a record high of 181%.

Corporate debt in Canada is also at record levels of about $2.4 trillion and based on the Bank of International Settlements, our corporate debt service ratio is among the highest in the world.

Total household, corporate, and government debt is about $7.0 trillion. This is 350% on a $2 trillion economy.

The one thing we know about debt is that if you can survive through a downturn, it will constrain choice; it will constrain the scope and flexibility of decision-making commitments. This will be the new reality for many decision makers across the entire economy.

You can reasonably expect that consumers and corporations will be spending less and repairing balance sheets, and governments at all levels will be forced to be more accountable and discerning in spending and borrowing. All of this will likely be a net drag on the economy for years.

Unfortunately, this is all happening at the same time that Canada’s GDP per capita and labour productivity have been lagging.

The issue of productivity must be emphasized. To quote Nobel Laureate economist, Paul Krugman:

“Productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is almost everything. A country’s ability to improve its standard of living over time depends almost entirely on its ability to raise output per worker.”

Canada is now in an era of both stagnating productivity, low competitiveness, and excessive levels of indebtedness. In the corporate investment world, we often describe this as a “strategic straightjacket” – with less choice and less freedom to move. All of this should encourage a reset in priorities towards fiscal constraint, incentivizing investment, and pursuing more business-friendly policies and strategies that will tilt towards increasing innovation, productivity, and prosperity.

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Author

Mac Van Wielingen

What Surprising Factor is Behind Canada’s Economic Growth?

Family enterprises play a crucial role in the Canadian economy. A recently published report suggests that family enterprises are the most powerful driver of economic growth in Canada, generating $574.6 billion – which is almost half of Canada’s private sector GDP – and almost seven million jobs in 2017. This “first-of-its-kind” study in Canada was a collaboration between the Conference Board of Canada and Family Enterprise Xchange. This research helps us to better understand “[t]he economic impact of family owned enterprises in Canada.”

Family businesses exist in all sectors and communities, from the local farmer and restaurant owner, to international companies in agriculture, communications, and retail. “Family enterprises produce nearly 7 million jobs in Canada. Empirical research also confirms that these businesses account for approximately 65 per cent of the output and 90 per cent of the jobs generated by small and medium-sized companies, which are frequently described as the backbone of the Canadian economy and are essential to our supply chains.” Additionally, “[n]early 2/3 of all private sector firms in Canada are family owned.” 

Not only do family enterprises create jobs, invest in their communities, and give back to society, but it seems that they may experience more success than other firms. Family enterprises were also found to have longer growth and longevity than other firms, with total revenues growing 14.6 percent on average from 2007 to 2013. In contrast, other firms grew 13.9 percent on average during this same period. Of the firms that were operating in 2007, around 70 percent of the family enterprises were still in operation in 2013, compared to 65 percent of the other firms. Moreover, a  2018 study by the National Bank of Canada suggests that “family-controlled businesses demonstrate an ability to yield long-term returns over the span of generations.” They concluded that their sample of “family-controlled businesses from different industries and regions across the country outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index by 120.3% over a 10-year period.” 

Although the reasons why family firms achieve these successes are not well understood, experts believe that enduring family firms share common traits – such as long-term orientation and an ability to adapt – that allow them to stand the test of time better than non-family companies. 

“Over time, greater knowledge of family firm dynamics will help us to understand the unique challenges that these businesses face, and by extension their consequences for the broader economic base. And that in turn will facilitate improved educational support for family enterprises themselves.” Further, perhaps by identifying what enables these family enterprises to experience increased success, other organizations can also benefit from focusing on these same characteristics. 

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Author

Karen Macdonald and Viewpoint Research Team

The Path to Economic And Social Prosperity in Canada

Last week, members of the expert panel on Sustainable Finance released their recommendations on mobilizing Canada’s financial sector, hoping to secure both economic prosperity and better environmental practices. The main takeaway from the panel is that Canada stands poised to become “a decision-maker rather than a decision-taker in a world where sound environmental stewardship is intersecting with market access and becoming critical to competitiveness.” Currently the fourth-largest exporter of oil and the fifth-largest exporter of natural gas, Canada has the potential to become the world’s safest and cleanest producer. Yet for this feat to be accomplished, the energy sector must focus on accelerating innovation, transparency, and market access. 
 
To further innovation, the panel recommends that the federal government “fund an oil and gas clean innovation cluster to pool capital and expertise,” helping to expand the next generation of innovative ventures, and consequently encourage the development and commercialization of cleaner energy-saving solutions.
 
Global perceptions of Canada’s environmental record and the carbon-intensity of oil sands extraction have caused investors in the energy sector to avoid Canada, or demand better data and evidence about the risk to their firms. “If we want to attract global capital back to Canadian resources, it will take an industry-wide commitment to report more comparable and complete data on climate-related financial risks.” Providing this type of transparency is exactly the kind of leadership that investors are seeking from Canada’s industry. 
 
In regards to market access, it is vital that Canada's market more responsibly produce oil and gas. Yet Canadian producers can only invest in cleaner technology if they are able to sell their products. “Though counter-intuitive to some, solving Canada’s market-access stalemate is fundamental to Canada’s ability to contribute to lowering emissions in the world’s global energy supply by displacing higher emissions and less transparent sources.”
 
Our founder, Mac Van Wielingen, strongly argues that this is an opportunity for Canada to be a leader in energy. Having used his decades of experience in the investment management business in capital projects all over the world, Mac’s own recommendations for the future of the energy sector align with those of the expert panel on sustainable finance. In his recent speaking event at the Calgary Petroleum Club, he states: 
 
“The industry must remain passionately committed to innovate and further improve its environmental performance, in the context of a global transition to a low carbon environment...There are two competing visions. One involves a dismantling and diminishment of our leading global industry with enormous financial and social costs. The other is to support the development of a “Clean, Canadian Energy Brand” and strategy to bring more of ourselves into the world, not less. This is Canada’s global leadership opportunity in energy and environmental stewardship.”
 
In addition, Bill Gates, chairman of the board for Breakthrough Energy Ventures (BEV), an investor-led, $1 billion fund committed to funding clean energy innovation, emphasizes the complexity of the issue of climate change. In a recent sit-down with David Rubenstein, president of The Economic Club of Washington, D.C., Gates stated that creative solutions are the key to combating climate changes; projects that utilize “the lens of innovation” are what investors should be focusing on. 

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Author

Viewpoint Research Team

State of the Nation: Canada’s 2019 Outlook

With trade wars, polarized politics, and big business shakeups across the world over the past year, many observers would opine that the political and economic state of many nations is in flux. With this in mind, it’s time we step back and take a big-picture view of Canada from a political and economic standpoint, as well as theorize what could be in store for 2019.

According to Edelmen’s 2018 Trust Barometer, Canadians' trust in institutions (government, business, media, and NGOs) did not change between 2017 and 2018, staying at a relatively low level of distrust from the general public (49 on a trust scale of 100) and a low level of trust from the “informed” public (62 out of 100). The US saw the steepest drop in trust by the informed public, from 68 in 2017, down to 45 in 2018. Canadians also have an increased trust in authority figures compared to 2017, choosing to believe academic experts, technical experts, and financial industry analysts above “people similar to themselves”.

On the business side, Canadian companies are the most trusted globally, beating Switzerland, Sweden, and Australia to claim the number one spot. However, trust in most business sectors within Canada is declining, except for the energy industry, which actually saw a 4 percent increase between 2017 and 2018, reversing a three-year downward trend. The top trust-building mandates for businesses in Canada is to drive economic prosperity, invest in jobs, and innovate, whereas the top trust-building mandates in the US are to safeguard privacy, investigate corruption, and ensure equal opportunity.

As for Canada’s 2019 economic outlook, the Business Development Bank of Canadafocuses on five analyses: 1) the Canadian economy is expected to grow by 2 percent, 2) trade tensions won’t affect the global economy with US-imposed tariffs expected to be removed, 3) the US is expected to lead most countries on economic growth, 4) a strong US economy will put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar, and 5) Canadian businesses will continue to struggle in hiring the people they need, stifling growth.

Additionally, a study by the International Institute for Sustainable Development shows Canada’s economy on shaky ground, with the growth of the nation’s “comprehensive wealth”, composed of five different types of capital (produced, natural, human, financial, and social), to be drastically behind other developed countries, and is in fact the only G7 nation undergoing a contraction of comprehensive wealth per capita. The risks to Canada’s economy include unprecedented levels of household debt, over-dependence on market-sensitive industries, zero growth in human capital, and climate change events (floods, wildfires, and storms).

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Author

Viewpoint Research Team